Are we heading into an economic recession or not? Headlines in recent days have sent mixed messages. Citing a prominent former Federal Reserve leader’s analysis, The Economist this week said the U.S. “may soon” enter recession territory. The Wall Street Journal, meanwhile, said “there is no sign of recession.”

As with many things, the answer is complicated. On Thursday, the Minnesota Chamber of Commerce invited a national Wells Fargo economist to weigh in at a summit at the Renaissance Minneapolis Hotel downtown.

Charlie Dougherty, a Charlotte, North Carolina-based senior economist and director with Wells Fargo, indicated that a recession is likely, albeit a much smaller one than in the early aughts. Despite a stronger-than-expected economy and notable real gross domestic product growth in the third quarter of this year, Dougherty said that signs are pointing to a “downturn” sometime next year.

“In fact we do think the most likely scenario here is that the economy does eventually go into a downturn, probably next year, probably between second quarter or third quarter of 2024,” he told attendees.

But he was careful to point out that this is likely to be a “short, shallow recession,” and not at all like the Great Recession in 2007-2009, when the economy contracted by more than 4%. His predictions for 2024 would amount to a real GDP contraction under 1%. “If you’re going to get a recession,” Dougherty said, “what you want is for it to be mild.”

The potential downturn of 2024 might end up looking closer to a contraction caused by the savings and loans crisis in the 1990s. Dougherty drew parallels that look remarkably similar to today: An oversupply of offices, the Fed tightening monetary policy, a geopolitical conflict in the Middle East, and the rise of a “new technology that nobody really understood that would absolutely go on to have a massive impact on the economy.”

“For all that, we had a mild recession,” Dougherty said of the ‘90s economy.

As with any economic crystal balling, there’s a wide margin for error. Dougherty said there is still a chance that the U.S. economy gets through current hurdles with a “soft landing.”

“If you go back in history, soft landings are actually pretty rare, but they happen,” he said.

Dougherty also pointed out that consumers are generally still spending. He said that consumers make up as much as 70% of the American economy. “As the consumer goes, so goes the rest of the economy,” he said.