All MN Jobs Lost to Pandemic Won’t Return Until Late 2022, Early 2023
A masked server in St. Paul jots down an order. Steve Skjold / Shutterstock.com

All MN Jobs Lost to Pandemic Won’t Return Until Late 2022, Early 2023

DEED forecast points to slowing job growth amid Covid uptick.
A masked server in St. Paul jots down an order. Steve Skjold / Shutterstock.com

The state’s economic recovery in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic is losing steam. In a sobering new assessment from the Minnesota Department of Employment and Economic Development, the agency’s forecast projects that “job growth is expected to slow over the coming months.”

Perhaps even more unsettling, DEED’s forecast bluntly says that “a recovery of all jobs lost [due to the pandemic] is not projected to be reached until late 2022 or early 2023.”

Factors at work include the recent uptick in new Covid cases; a second state-mandated closure for bars, restaurants and entertainment venues; and a lack of any clarity about if and when a second federal stimulus package can be expected.

Dave Senf, a labor market analyst with DEED, wrote the report.

The forecast noted that through October, the state had regained 52.5 percent of the 387,800 jobs lost in March and April when the pandemic first hit.

“Job growth in the state over the next year will be, as it has been since the pandemic arrived, heavily influenced by the path of the pandemic and the size of any future round of federal pandemic relief spending,” Senf noted in the overview.

The report projects that Minnesota will add 116,000 jobs from the third quarter of 2020 to the third quarter of 2021. That’s based on assumptions including the passage of a federal stimulus bill in early 2021 and a drop in Covid cases once vaccines become widely available in mid-2021.

New numbers from New Jersey-based Automatic Data Processing Inc. (ADP) on Wednesday reported that employers added 307,000 payroll jobs in November, down from October and significantly lower than Wall Street analysts had been expecting. A CNBC report on the statistics referenced a “deceleration in large business hiring” as one explanation for the November numbers.

As a provider of human resources management software and services, ADP is a good barometer on the state of hiring trends in the U.S.

The latest federal employment statistics are due out Friday morning.