None of us will ever forget Operation Metro Surge: neighbors detained, police brutality, families torn apart, communities living in fear. Less visible but just as far-reaching is the economic damage Trump’s federal agent surge left behind. As the Governor’s Truth Council wraps up months of testimony from those harmed, it’s clear that the economic damage from Operation Metro Surge ran deep across Minnesota, and we are still paying for it. Those personal accounts line up with a growing body of quantitative evidence, gathered both during the surge and in the months since.

As researchers at North Star Policy Action and the W.E. Upjohn Institute, we set out to use the tools of social science to measure the scale of the impacts. What we found was striking. In the first six weeks of the surge, the number of people working in the Twin Cities fell by almost 3%, and total hours worked dropped by nearly 2%. Those may sound like small numbers, but picture the unemployment rate jumping three percentage points in a matter of weeks. It would be recognized as an economic emergency. Using conservative assumptions, we estimate Twin Cities workers lost at least $106 million in wages between early January and mid-February alone.

The harm wasn’t isolated to the Twin Cities metro. Statewide, in the leisure and hospitality industry, we found the surge cost 4,600 jobs and 3.8 million work hours, adding up to more than $70 million in lost wages in that industry alone.

Our analysis used rigorous statistical methods to control for broader economic and seasonal trends, giving us confidence that the results reflect the specific impact of DHS activity, not a typical Minnesota winter slowdown.

And we’re far from alone in these kinds of findings. Data compiled for the Truth Council estimates Twin Cities businesses lost $445 million in revenue, with 60% of Minneapolis businesses reporting a negative impact on their operations. Across the state, one in five tourism businesses reported cancelled, postponed, or scaled-back events, and 63% of Minnesotans say they believe the surge hurt the state’s economy.

These alarming numbers only scratch the surface.

In September, North Star Policy Action joined researchers from across Minnesota and the country to share new findings on the broader impacts of DHS activity in our state. More than 30 research teams documented increased school absences, missed medical appointments, and a range of other harms. Many carry economic costs of their own, such as lower educational attainment and higher medical bills, that may not fully show up for years or even decades.

There’s also a longer-term cost Minnesota can’t afford to ignore: what happens to our communities and economy when immigrants no longer feel welcome here. Immigrants are essential to Minnesota’s community, vibrancy, and economy. In 2023, international migration exceeded total net population growth in the Twin Cities metro. Immigrants fill crucial jobs in industries hit hard by the surge, including construction, healthcare, and childcare, and in fields expected to grow in the years ahead. If Minnesota is no longer a place where immigrants feel welcome, we lose part of what makes this state strong.

Some of these challenges will require federal attention in the years to come. But state lawmakers have the chance to act now.

In 2026, the Legislature failed to pass relief for the businesses and workers harmed by the surge. That was a missed opportunity. Recent interviews with small business owners make clear the damage hasn’t gone away.

The Truth Council’s testimony and the growing body of research point to the same conclusion: Operation Metro Surge harmed Minnesotans in ways that will shape our communities and our economy for years to come. Understanding the true scale of that harm is the first step toward repairing it.

Aaron Rosenthal is the Research Director for North Star Policy Action.